Keep out! Top investor keeps Bovespa exposure low

Brazilian investors can be mealy-mouthed on government issues, at least to the media, to avoid poisoning relations with policy makers.  Not so one of Brazil's most respected investor voices, Luis Stuhlberger. In his latest report, he has underscored the damage that government policy is wreaking on prospects for stocks.

Room for manoeuvre on fiscal and monetary policies is limited and has been "substantially reduced" by policies in recent years, warns Stulhberger. He adds that the slowdown in tax collection and increase in spending represents a "significant challenge for the country". The fund is maintaining low exposure to Brazilian stocks, he says. For more, see this article in Infomoney (In Portuguese only This is all the more surprising as the Brazilian government is particularly sensitive to criticism of its macro policies with the run-up to next year's elections unofficially under way.

Stuhlberger has had a knack of identifying longer term trends in the economy and is co-founder of the Hedging Griffo brand where he runs the flagship Verde fund. 


About admin

I've been researching and writing on Brazilian financial markets, industry and economy since 2006 for a wide range of specialist media, consultancies and investors. Before that I spent over 10 years in London and New York writing for and editing magazines and journals dedicated to finance, investment and economics in developing markets, mostly for the Euromoney Institutional Investor group and Thomson Financial. Areas of coverage Below are samples of areas that I cover and some of the common themes that I investigate. Capital markets BM&FBovespa markets *capital raising trends: via equities (IPOs and secondary issuance), debt and loans *the asset management industry: legislation and coverage of the key hedge, pension and investment funds * corporate governance: how the regulator is seeking to strengthen best practice and limitations * debt markets: the nascent corporate markets, attempts to boost liquidity and new insturments. * private equity market: why this market has been so successful, who’s involved. *electronic, high frequency trading and alternative trading platforms: what does the future hold? Banking *credit: the growth of consumer and business credit and competition between banks and models *Public versus private: the role and market share of public and private sector banks and the politicization of the industry * internationalization: which Brazilian banks are expanding overseas and where * investment banking: the growth of the domestic market and who’s winning which mandates *regional banks and development banks: what role they play in the industry and how they compete Mining *licensing: the complex process of obtaining environmental, water, land and operating licenses at a state and federal level. * capacity: the feasibility and sustainability of capacity increases * financing: how miners are raising finance in Brazil and abroad *competition: the interplay Vale, MMX and junior miners *logistics: rail, road and port connections Oil and gas: the fund raising issues related to the massive of pre-salt (link) Multilatinas: Who are they and how and where they are expanding Meatpacking: Are debt burdens sustainable, what are the different business models for areas such as branding and distrbution Agriculture: How are farms consolidating, what are environmental risks, how can foreign investors be involved. IT and software: Can Brazil take on India and build a viable long-term IT industry? For more information on clients and work, please see the media and consultancy sections.
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