Serra and Rousseff: Greens versus evangelicals

The surprise showing by the Green Party under Marina Silva is likely to lead only to the lightest shade of greening by Rousseff and Serra. Rather, the two candidates will need to woo the evangelical Christian vote, which is focused on preventing abortion and gay marriage. Moves to trip up the development agenda through still more onerous environmental and other licensing is thus unlikely.

Silva has found her base not only in disaffected green voters, but the growing evangelical community. She herself is a member of the Assembly of God church. Rousseff, who was tainted by insinuations that she would ease abortion laws, has already announced that her campaign will focus on harvesting the Christian vote, a move that has received the blessing of outgoing President Lula.

For investors, one of Roussseff's strong points was the idea that she would streamline the bureaucratic environmental agency, Ibama. Indeed, she clashed with Marina Silva when the latter was Minister for the Environment over slow and onerous licensing processes and is believed to be the person responsible for Silva's decision to leave the Workers' Party government. Rousseff's developmental instincts are unlikely to be blunted by the larger-than-expected Green vote.

The second round of elections in Brazil will be held on October 30.

About admin

I've been researching and writing on Brazilian financial markets, industry and economy since 2006 for a wide range of specialist media, consultancies and investors. Before that I spent over 10 years in London and New York writing for and editing magazines and journals dedicated to finance, investment and economics in developing markets, mostly for the Euromoney Institutional Investor group and Thomson Financial. Areas of coverage Below are samples of areas that I cover and some of the common themes that I investigate. Capital markets BM&FBovespa markets *capital raising trends: via equities (IPOs and secondary issuance), debt and loans *the asset management industry: legislation and coverage of the key hedge, pension and investment funds * corporate governance: how the regulator is seeking to strengthen best practice and limitations * debt markets: the nascent corporate markets, attempts to boost liquidity and new insturments. * private equity market: why this market has been so successful, who’s involved. *electronic, high frequency trading and alternative trading platforms: what does the future hold? Banking *credit: the growth of consumer and business credit and competition between banks and models *Public versus private: the role and market share of public and private sector banks and the politicization of the industry * internationalization: which Brazilian banks are expanding overseas and where * investment banking: the growth of the domestic market and who’s winning which mandates *regional banks and development banks: what role they play in the industry and how they compete Mining *licensing: the complex process of obtaining environmental, water, land and operating licenses at a state and federal level. * capacity: the feasibility and sustainability of capacity increases * financing: how miners are raising finance in Brazil and abroad *competition: the interplay Vale, MMX and junior miners *logistics: rail, road and port connections Oil and gas: the fund raising issues related to the massive of pre-salt (link) Multilatinas: Who are they and how and where they are expanding Meatpacking: Are debt burdens sustainable, what are the different business models for areas such as branding and distrbution Agriculture: How are farms consolidating, what are environmental risks, how can foreign investors be involved. IT and software: Can Brazil take on India and build a viable long-term IT industry? For more information on clients and work, please see the media and consultancy sections.
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