The Silva lining for Eduardo Campos?

The intriguing alliance of two former, disgruntled Worker's Party (PT) members could throw a wrench into the delicate calculations for next October's elections in Brazil. If they build a head of steam, could they lead to a more business-friendly Brazil?

Marina Silva and Eduardo Campos had both been staunch supporters of the PT. Silva peeled off earlier, unhappy with the government's stance on the environmental and its inability or unwillingness to shake off corruption. Campos, governor of Pernambuco state, was vigorously supported by his padrinho Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and built a strong base in the Northeast. Perhaps a mixture of hubris/power hunger and genuine 'fed-upness' with Brazil's solidified political system has him testing out the waters for a bid now that Lula is out the picture.

Together this unlikely couple are likely to draw votes from the PT and possibly its arch rival PSDB. Still, the machinery they have at their disposal is limited and they will be fought tooth and nail by both parties and in particular the PT, which gives short shrift to 'traitors'.

The key question is whether they will be able to hammer out a coherent political platform. Campos has not moved that far from his former cohort but is increasingly keen to emphasize a better business environment. Silva has some sympathy with that, but while Campos is a hard-nosed player, Silva has more liberal policies that sit uncomfortably with promoting big business particularly in her defence of the environment (after all, Brazil is a commodity exporter par excellence) and her religious convictions, which make it hard to operate in the cut-and-thrust of Brazilian politics. They will shake up the status quo and enhance the electoral race but it's hard to believe they will not bicker openly and even harder to see them reaching the finishing line. More's the pity.

 

About admin

I've been researching and writing on Brazilian financial markets, industry and economy since 2006 for a wide range of specialist media, consultancies and investors. Before that I spent over 10 years in London and New York writing for and editing magazines and journals dedicated to finance, investment and economics in developing markets, mostly for the Euromoney Institutional Investor group and Thomson Financial. Areas of coverage Below are samples of areas that I cover and some of the common themes that I investigate. Capital markets BM&FBovespa markets *capital raising trends: via equities (IPOs and secondary issuance), debt and loans *the asset management industry: legislation and coverage of the key hedge, pension and investment funds * corporate governance: how the regulator is seeking to strengthen best practice and limitations * debt markets: the nascent corporate markets, attempts to boost liquidity and new insturments. * private equity market: why this market has been so successful, who’s involved. *electronic, high frequency trading and alternative trading platforms: what does the future hold? Banking *credit: the growth of consumer and business credit and competition between banks and models *Public versus private: the role and market share of public and private sector banks and the politicization of the industry * internationalization: which Brazilian banks are expanding overseas and where * investment banking: the growth of the domestic market and who’s winning which mandates *regional banks and development banks: what role they play in the industry and how they compete Mining *licensing: the complex process of obtaining environmental, water, land and operating licenses at a state and federal level. * capacity: the feasibility and sustainability of capacity increases * financing: how miners are raising finance in Brazil and abroad *competition: the interplay Vale, MMX and junior miners *logistics: rail, road and port connections Oil and gas: the fund raising issues related to the massive of pre-salt (link) Multilatinas: Who are they and how and where they are expanding Meatpacking: Are debt burdens sustainable, what are the different business models for areas such as branding and distrbution Agriculture: How are farms consolidating, what are environmental risks, how can foreign investors be involved. IT and software: Can Brazil take on India and build a viable long-term IT industry? For more information on clients and work, please see the media and consultancy sections.
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